Tuesday 13 November 2007

I've got a Schreiber in my poll

What do we make of this whole Schreiber / Mulroney / Harper thing that's been going on? Is this the big break that the Liberals have been waiting for? A new poll has come out showing that support for the Conservatives has dropped and Liberal support has spiked several points, especially in Ontario. Wow, with results like that the Liberals might be tempted to actually vote on a confidence motion in the House. Can they parlay this into lasting support? A minority government? A majority government? An airport named after Stephane Dion?

Of course, just a few days earlier, this poll came out:

"Prime Minister Stephen Harper is soaring as Canadians' top pick to lead the country, while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion has plunged to third spot behind the NDP's Jack Layton."
Contoversy in the Conservative camp does not make Stephane a good leader. The impact of this depends on how Harper responds. What's happening here is that a shady business man is fighting tooth and nail to keep his ass out of a German jail, and if he's going down he wants to take everybody else with him. The only thing connecting Harper to this mess (so far) is a 7-month old letter that NDP MP Pat Martin considered important enough to throw dierctly into the trash can. Harper has shown that he can navigate tricky situations and end up more popular then before. From his first day appointing unelected individuals to cabinet, to the same sex marriage debate, to his backtrack on Income Trusts. If I were Stephane, I would not get too excited. Unless the Liberals can form a cohesive party with a compelling platform, they're still going nowhere.

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