Jack Layton

We here at the Peanut are sorry to learn of Jack's demise. Jack was a dynamic figure in Canada's political scene and as leader of the NDP he provided an important counter-balance to the traditional governing parties.

I certainly feel for Olivia and the rest of Jack's friends and family, but I am not going to pretend now that I have any particular personal attachment to Jack simply because he has passed away. And though I regret his passing, it is certainly no surprise. My mother, like Jack, won a battle with cancer but lost the war. I know others who have fallen to cancer's sword as well, including both parents of a family that I am acquainted with. In both cases cancer struck with shocking speed, taking both parents (years apart) in less than one month from their initial diagnosis. Once cancer grips your body there is little than can be done to stop it.

That is why, when Jack appeared in his press conference, suddenly frail and weak, less than a month ago, I feared the worst. I was not one of those who optimistically predicted that Jack would be back in September or even that he would be back at all. I knew he would not. I suspect most people knew as well, but did not want to face reality. I read all of those tweets and commentaries that said Cancer better watch out because it doesn't know who it's dealing with and other silly things, and I shook my head. Sure, hope for the best, but if you convince yourself that he's going to beat it, it will only hurt more when he does not. It may be a blessing for the NDP and its supporters that the end came as quickly as it did, rather than stringing them along with false hope of a return of Jack.

On a personal level his death is no more or less tragic than any other, but it has great significance to the country on a political level. With his loss, we have not just a rudderless opposition party, but an extremely inexperienced rudderless opposition party. It is a party that has a lot of work to do just to sort itself out. There will be a leadership race that could potentially become nasty, having recently adopted a lopsided Quebec-oriented posture but with most senior MPs coming from other parts of the country. When at one time the NDP knew what it stood for and had a small but solid base under a charismatic leader, it is now spread thin, with no leader and a suspect agenda.

I don't know if there has ever been a time in Canada's history when a national government has ever has so much leeway. There have certainly been larger majorities, but as far as I know there was typically some sort of effective opposition to hold them to account. (Mind you, I am no political scholar.) But here we have a situation where Harper is faced with a full term of majority rule, and every opposition party is in complete disarray, with the exception of the Green Party which only has one seat.

Layton was a remarkable man, and the rise of his party to official opposition status under his leadership was stunning. The void that will be left by his departure will be equally remarkable. The NDP was over-achieving with Jack at the helm, and now that he's gone and Nycole Turmel is temporarily in charge, the party is completely out of its league. In retrospect, the rise of the NDP may have been more of a victory for the Conservatives than it was for the political left. In any case, the man went out on top and had an impact on the nation, and that is something to be remembered.

Election 2011: Anybody Want A Peanut? endorses:

Maybe not "endorses". Everybody sucks. We can't endorse any of them. However, I got together with my advisors and the Anybody Want A Peanut? editorial board to decide who I should vote for.

Here's the thing: An NDP government would be a disaster for the nation. They are a well-intentioned bunch, but the misguided economic policies, spending increases and economic interventionism would be bad news. Fortunately, I don't believe the NDP will win the election. They may be surging, but I think there will be some pull-back today at the voting booth. Just like the first time you go sky diving: when the moment of truth comes, you look out the door of the air plane and say to yourself "what the hell am I doing? This is crazy!" Plus, if the announcement of Osama Bin Laden's death will have any any impact of the Canadian election, it will be to detriment of Jack Layton. It brings an issue to the forefront that Jack is in the minority on, plus it brings new hope that the war in Afghanistan is not futile. In fact, it may be more winnable now than ever before, making an immediate pull-out of troops irresponsible.

Likewise it is clear that the Liberals will not win the election. This is a good thing, because Ignatieff, who could have chosen a fiscally conservative platform, instead chose to veer left into NDP territory. Not quite as far off into the socialist bramble, mind you, but too far for my liking.

I happen to live in a riding that is a battleground between the Liberals and the Conservatives. Between incumbent Conservative Shelley Glover, and former MP Raymond Simard. Those are my only two meaningful choices. Andrew Coyne puts the decision this way: "would the Liberals do more harm to the economy than the Conservatives would do to democracy?" That is a tough question to answer, however, since the Liberals will not win, I don't have to answer it. Instead, the question becomes: do the Conservatives deserve (or need) a majority government?

I have argued before that Harper would be on a path to an easy majority if he was only less of a dweeb. He is his own worst enemy. Every time he gained in the polls, he pulled some aggressive or mean-spirited move that turned off marginal voters and knocked his rating back down. I do not like his style of leadership. I do not agree with many of the things that he has done, and I think his current campaign that primary revolves around coalition fear-mongering is absolutely terrible. I think the Conservatives would do much better under a different leader, and I think the Canada would benefit from that change as well. As a result, I am inclined to say that Harper does not deserve the majority that he is looking for. To give him a majority is to give approval of his horrendous campaign and his systematic destruction of parliamentary process in Ottawa. When this election is over, I want the Conservative advisors to sit down and say to themselves: "Okay, that didn't work. What can we do differently?". Politics in Ottawa is sickening, and it's largely because of Harper.

If there was a chance that any other party would win, I would probably vote Conservative, because the alternatives are even worse. For various reasons I don't believe there will be a Liberal/NDP coalition government if Harper gets a minority, and if there is, I don't think it will last long. Therefore, my decision is based on giving a vote of disapproval to Harper and the Conservatives by voting for Liberal Raymond Simard.

At least that's the decision that my advisors and I came to. I might get a sky-diving flashback and change my mind in the voting booth.

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Hey look! A couple of bloggers have awoken from their comas to post special election-edition commentaries!

Hacks and Wonks

Prairie Topiary

Good to see your blogs come alive again.

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My election predictions, as tweeted on Friday:
CPC 140, NDP 85, LPC 61, BQ: 21, GPC: 0, Ind: 1

Connect Caption Contest - Jack Layton

It must be pick on Jack Layton day here at the Peanut. Just watching Connect with Mark Kelly. A spur of the moment entry into their caption contest:

Pleeeease ... can't I take a few stem cells for my hip?

Okay, I'll Jack alone now. Let's see if it makes it past the CBC mods.

Poor Jack Layton

Did a little doodle of Jack, in honour of his having no chance of winning.* Actually, not much thought went into it .. I just started doodling and this is where I ended up:

I kind of like Jack in some ways. He's not a bad guy. He is just an otherwise normal guy who happened to be born with that abnormal gene that turns you into an NDPer.

I did one other sketch of him while I was at work some time ago. I'll share with you, because I don't know what else to do with it:

* further to this: NDP seems to be trending down in the polls, especially in Ontario. Not promising. How does Jack make the NDP relevant?

Gun registry winners and losers

big winner: Jack Layton. Four words that I never thought I'd have to string together, but there it is...

I think Jack handled the whole gun registry debate better than anyone. While Harper was whipping his MPs to vote to kill the registry, as you would expect from a iron-fisted leader hailing from gun-toting red-neck country; and while Iggy was whipping his boys and girls to vote against killing the registry, as you would expect from a bunch of out-of-touch money-wasting urban lefty elitists; Jack was playing it cool. While he clearly stated his own preference -- as any leader should on an important issue -- he allowed his MPs to vote as they saw fit while proposing an alternative of some kind, thereby positioning himself as the moderate in this whole affair. Tired old Wacky Jacky is all of a sudden the captain of common sense and compromise.

Canadians are desperate for more of that: cooler heads, compromise solutions, and acknowledgment that different constituencies have different values. I personally would like to see more open votes in the House. The rhetoric will get toned down because you are less likely to fear monger and hurl insults when some of your own colleagues are voting the other way. Ultimately I think it would lead to a more productive parliament.

winner: Tory MP Candice Hoeppner
Who is Candice Hoeppner? A few weeks ago I would have guessed a third liner on Canada's women's hockey team. Now I know differently. Even though her bill failed, she has still put herself on the main stage and has performed reasonably well.

big loser: Harper. Lost the vote, again. The registry's never going away Steevo. Get used to it.

loser: Ignatieff. Even though you won the vote, you still alienated a bloc of voters, and you were out-classed by Layton. Jack Layton. Deal with that.

losers: anybody who changed their vote. Spineless wusses.

loser: Niki Ashton, for not saying how you were going to vote. You went from being open-minded and thoughtful to indecisive and annoying. Were you waiting for bribes? I ditto Policy Frog's tweet.

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Where do I stand? The Anybody Want A Peanut public policy and cocktail mixing department (I had to consolidate due to cut-backs) has not provided me with a report yet, so I don't know what to think. The bastards are probably too busy drinking mojitos. I look at it from a cost/benefit perspective. A registry per se is not a bad idea, but is it worth all the money we're pumping into it? I can't answer that question.