Tuesday, 8 December 2009

Devil's advocate on climate change

The Climate Research Unit scientists were right to fudge their climate change studies.

The cooked data, the exaggerated results, the black-listed dissenters, and the general bastardization of scientific process: it is all justifiable. In fact, it is essential.

The problem of global pollution and climate change is Remove Formatting from selectionsubject to something that economists call the Tragedy of the Commons. If the global climate were to go to shit, all nations would suffer. However, no one nation can solve the problem unilaterally, and attempting to do so would impart economic hardship on that nation. A collaborative effort is required involving all nations. If country Z refuses to participate, then country Y will as well, so as not to be at a competitive disadvantage. If Y does not participate than neither will X, and so on.

Thus you need all nations on board, and you're not going to get all those politicians in line with wishy-washy results, or "objective peer review", or "conflicting opinions" that self-interested leaders can latch on to as an excuse not to participate.

Furthermore, we all know how these international planning sessions go: leaders go in talking about a certain objective; after all the bickering and nattering they walk away with an agreement for 1/10th of that objective; and when it comes time to put the rubber to the road they may actually accomplish 1/10th of what they agreed to. So if you need to reduce emissions by a trillion tons to save the planet, then you have to tell everybody that they need to reduce emissions by 100 trillions tons. If oceans are going to rise by 6 inches, you tell them that they're rising by 50 feet. That's how it works. And if some pain-in-the-ass scientists say "Hey wait a minute, our results show ..." then you have to shut those fuckers up ASAP before they ruin everything.

Alas, some thieving thruthers who obviously don't have the best interests of the planet in mind have exposed the ruse, and as a result the climate negotiations in Copenhagen are doomed to fail. And because of that, we are all doomed.



Anonymous said...

So, the ends justify the means then, didn't some use that as a justification for invading Iraq?

Anonymous said...

the square peg data was pounded into a round Copenhagen; it's the DATA that indicates a warming trend but it's the DATA that is falsified.

why falsify it if there is accurate data to be analyzed and those results presented to the world?

here's a hint: there is NO man-made climate catastrophe looming. it's ALL about distorting the socio-political-economic superstructure of the world AND 'researchers' (in quotes) getting 100s of millions in grant money.

cherenkov said...

@anon2: keeping my devil's advocate hat on (looks pretty good on me, hey? I especially like the flashing lights.) ... um where was I .. oh ya ... you falsify results because, while the real data may indeed show that a catastrophe is looming, the degree of change, the speed of change, and the degree to which we're responsible is not clear, and if something is not clear the politicians won't buy in.

Just to be clear ... my post was somewhat tongue-in-cheek ... I don't actually support what the CRU scientists did.

Regan Wolfrom said...

It's going to take another decade, in my opinion, before we start seeing real progress in the reduction of carbon emissions, but we'll get there. I think that this climate change data scandal has cost us a year or two of progress, and has really hurt the public perception of scientists; however, I think that the momentum for the advancement of energy technology won't be stopped, at least not outside of North America.

Canada is in danger of becoming a joke when it comes to energy technology. We're doing too little in renewables, sequestration, nuclear fission, and in research in energy-related advances such as battery technology, spaceflight, and nuclear fusion.

No matter a person's level of belief in human-created climate change, we're going to be far behind the times in 2050 when the rest of the world will be using 21st century technology (relying far less on soon-to-be-exhausted fossil fuels) while we in North America will still be burning coal and filling gas tanks with marginal oil.

Patsplace said...

I have great hopes that Prime Minister Harper walks out of Hopenhagen after calling it a hoax and repeating what he said when first exposed to the Kyoto nonsense.
"It's a socialist wealth redistribution scheme."

Maybe the market crash took some of the billions from the major players that have put the Cap & Trade ponzi scheme together and they've rightly figured that this is how they recover their losses.

Anonymous said...

ends justify the means?


Pandoras box x10

cherenkov said...

A related and slightly humourous quote from John Ashton, the UK special representative on climate change:

"it is wrong and dangerous for scientists to confuse politicians"(over climate change targets.)
- New Scientist, March 21 2009

Since climate science is intrinsically fuzzy, he seems to be advocating fudging the data to provide a consistent picture to politicians.

John Dobbin said...

No science is settled. It is why I think the world is flat and the sun circles the Earth.

Freedom Manitoba said...

The importance of Climate-Gate is greatly exagerrated.


cherenkov said...

Freedom: I think it remains to be seen what the impact is. The author of that blog is clearly giving the CRU the benefit of the doubt, but if there was real fraud as it appears there may be, that's a big deal, because political support for dramatic green house gas reductions is so shaky that even a minor scandal about the validity of the data could prevent an agreement from happening.

Anonymous said...

Those of you who dig a little deeper than Fox News and Charles Adler, those of you who actually read things in context, will know that "Climategate" has been overblown (i.e. the warming trend not showing up relates to how tree rings react to it, not the actual temperature)
The national science bodies of EVERY INDUSTRIALIZED NATION have concluded that human action contributes greatly to global warming.

unclebob said...


Please don't lie to me about wasting my money on my membership in the Flat Earth Society. I have a nice plastic membership card card in my wallet. It must be true.

Well I think I also have an old Dick Biondi Ugly Club membership as well.

It is more traumatic than I can take having all my beliefs at risk in such a short time.

My publication ran the Climategate article 2.5 weeks ago and I am publicly calling the denyists as folks who need some chair time with the Borg.

Cherenkov - Thanks for the attention to the issue

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It is surprising that a reputable company like AimTrust would have a "easyfreehosting.com" URL. Oh well. I am sure they are reputable, because you say so. I will be sure to check it out!

Freedom Manitoba said...

@ cherenkov
"I think it remains to be seen what the impact is."

I agree, and my main point is that some folks that have said that Climate gate is the "nail in the coffin" are really jumping the gun. Science isn't dependant on one groups data from one field. I think that it will result in more transparancy when it comes to science, which is good.

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cherenkov said...

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What does SCAM stand for?

@Freedom: I hope some good does come of it.

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